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Trading Expectancy Calculator

Combine win rate, average win, average loss and costs into a per-trade scenario.

Your assumptions

Defaults are illustrative. Use one consistent currency.

THE RESULT

Choose your assumptions and calculate.

Model output, not a forecast. Read the assumptions below.

Expectancy = win probability × average win − loss probability × average loss − cost. Break-even win probability = (loss + cost) ÷ (win + loss).

At a 45% win rate, 200 average win, 100 average loss and 5 costs, expectancy is 30 per trade; break-even win rate is 35%.

Convert a chosen cash risk limit and stop distance into units for a linear instrument.

Compare the price distance to a stop and target for a long or short trade.

Calculate a long-position profit after separate buy and sell fees.