Sequence of Returns Risk Calculator
Reverse an explicit list of annual returns while holding capital and requested withdrawals fixed. Compare both full schedules without invented historical data.
Your inputs
Use consistent units and periods. Defaults are examples.
Your result
Check the assumptions below before relying on a result.
Formula and method
Scenario A uses your annual return list. Scenario B reverses exactly the same list. Both use the identical withdrawal request and fee/index assumptions. No-cash-flow growth is a product; with cash withdrawals the order can change funded cash and ending capital.
Worked example
For 100 starting capital,10 withdrawn at the beginning of each year, no fees/inflation, and returns−20%,+25%, ending capital is 77.50. Reversing to+25%,−20% ends at 82.00. With withdrawals set to zero, both finish at 100.00 because 0.8×1.25=1.
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Open calculator ↗How to use this result
- Use one currency throughout. An annual spending input is not a monthly amount.
- Read the timing, inflation and fee definitions before comparing scenarios.
- Inspect the annual table and download CSV to retain the assumptions.
- Use the second scenario on supported tools to vary one assumption at a time. No result proves that stopping work is prudent.
Questions about this calculation
Are the listed returns historical?
No. Defaults are invented to demonstrate arithmetic. Enter only annual percentage returns; this tool does not fetch prices or claim to reproduce a historical portfolio.
Why reverse rather than randomly shuffle?
Reversal produces one deterministic comparison with the exact same return values. It isolates order while remaining reproducible. It is not an exhaustive test of every ordering.
Why can both paths end at zero yet have different outcomes?
Ending balance alone hides cash that could not be funded. Compare total unfunded withdrawals and their first year as well as the ending balance.
Can I compare different-length return lists?
Not here: B is always the same list reversed. This preserves a common horizon and avoids comparing different data sets.